Cpcmcredit Blog

My annual ritual is to share my predictions for the forthcoming year. It’s a good way to concentrate the mind and plan accordingly but like all predictions, some may come true and others will not. I concentrate on business finance but that is of course influenced by wider trends which are harder to predict and unfortunately not particularly positive at the present time. No matter and heres a random selection

1. Will a major bank finally entirely absent themselves from the invoice finance market? This has been predicted time and time again by many in the market and with RBS withdrawing a significant product and another within the Big 4 seemingly invisible in the market, the rumours will persist. My prediction is that there will not be a radical exit but a continuing gradual move away from the invoice financing
2. The demand for invoice financing will be slow. Many in the industry believe it will spike when CBILS and Bounceback lending looses its impact but i’m less sure. In my experience, invoice financing is largely driven by Start ups (relatively), growth and MBIs. Business sales and purchases remain bouyant but business expansions and start ups are surely going to be sluggish for a some time.
3. As I have recently blogged, I believe that insolvencies will not rise at the rates many are predicting.
4. The issue of the Government lending schemes and the waste through lack of checks on borrowers will continue to be news and I predict there will be a number of high profile cases which will not reflect well on the current PM
5. The RLS loan scheme (a further version of the CBILs lending) will launch belatedly in January but the number of “signed up” lenders has reduced considerably and I hope my prediction that the lending will overly limited will prove to be incorrect. I sense very little enthusiasm from the lenders and this could fade away like the EFG scheme
6. A major “fintech” lender will collapse under the weight of badly underwritten lending. Some of these lender’s balance sheets make for horrific reading and whilst I believe they are a very welcome addition to the market, the belief that you can overturn the established principles of lending is simply wrong
7. Given a couple of bafflingly dreadful rebrands in the Asset Finance Market, marketing agencies and their dismal suggestions will be rightly sidelined by the industry
8. Commercial mortgages will prove more difficult to source. There is likely to be a downturn in the overall property market and this will of course impact. Additionally property backed business loans will become a little harder to complete and source

Not a pretty picture overall but it would be foolish to assume otherwise but the overall consensus from economists will be that there will be upturn later in 2023 and its worth remembering that many of the direr predictions about this winter both in resources and commodity prices have not come to pass. A good example is Gas prices which are apparently now at lower levels than pre invasion

Either way, if it means the end of Putin then it’s a price worth paying. The world would undoubtably be a better place with his passing.

Happy new year